On Nursing Homes

[Latrinsorm]

I saw an interesting report from the Kaiser Family Foundation the other day, here's the link:

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/what-share-of-people-who-have-died-of-covid-19-are-65-and-older-and-how-does-it-vary-by-state

This nugget jumped out at me: "States that have reported a larger share of adults 65 and older who have died of COVID-19 tend to be those states that have had a disproportionate number of deaths in long-term care facilities. These include Idaho, with 94% of COVID-19 deaths among those 65 and older, as well as New Hampshire (92%), Massachusetts (90%), Rhode Island (90%), Minnesota (89%), Connecticut (89%), Pennsylvania (87%), Ohio (86%), Kentucky (84%), and Delaware (83%)."

Obviously, the exclusion of New York from that list was remarkable given the many comments we've seen here and elsewhere about Governor Cuomo, so I dug a little deeper to see how close to the top ten they were, since ten is just an arbitrary cut off point, after all, but New York wasn't in the top 15 either.
Or the top 20.
Or the top 25.

They were exactly #30, below median and well below average.

.

Okay, but people above 65 aren't necessarily in nursing homes, do we have any other age groups?

You bet we do!

28% of the COVID-19 deaths in New York state came from the age group 85 and over. This rank is very different than #30...

...it's #41, or just outside the ten lowest such rates in the country.

.

Alright, but even though the nursing home explanation is complete horse hockey, deaths are 7.4% of cases in New York and in Florida they're only 1.4%. How else can we explain New York's number being so much higher?

Quite simply!

New York was one of the earliest states hit by coronavirus, and if you'll recall, dear reader, early in the pandemic there were extreme testing shortages. From antibody testing we know for a fact the number of cases in New York was underrepresented by a factor of about eight as I discussed previously (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2160063#post2160063). In April we were doing about 100,000 tests a day; today we are doing about 800,000. New York in particular was doing about 15,000; Florida in particular is doing about 70,000. It's possible (and indeed likely!) that they are still missing some, but not nearly as many as were missed early on.

And of course it's notable that applying the same factor determined by seroprevalance gets us right about to the 1% mortality rate that has also been demonstrated all across the world.

[Tgo01]

Because NY is run by a bunch of crooks and liars.

Shortly after it became apparent that Cuomo's murderous orders were killing off nursing home residents by the thousands the state changed the classification for who is considered a nursing home resident at the time of death; if they lived in a nursing home but died at a hospital they weren't counted as a nursing home resident but rather they counted as having died at a hospital. Since a lot of people got sick they were sent to a hospital before they died.

It's like you don't even care about facts. SAD! (https://nypost.com/2020/05/29/new-yorks-nursing-home-horrors-are-even-worse-than-you-think/)


Instead, New York’s health commissioner, Howard Zucker, began fudging the death statistics, which concealed the consequences: Until late April, New York had reported all nursing-home residents who died from COVID-19, whether they died at the home or after being hospitalized. That’s standard. But as the toll soared, the state quietly shifted to reporting only deaths at the homes. That reduced the number to 6,062 — terrible but only half the truth.

The reality is, at least another 17,000 elder-care patients with COVID-19 were sent to hospitals, and an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 of them have died, with death rates highest for those on ventilators, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association’s mortality rates.

And this story was from way back in May. How many other nursing home deaths has the state covered up in order to protect Cuomo from murder charges?

[Tgo01]

You can even see this shit from NY's own website: (https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/diseases/covid-19/fatalities_nursing_home_acf.pdf)


Nursing Home and ACF COVID Related Deaths Statewide

This data captures COVID-19 confirmed and COVID-19 presumed deaths within nursing homes and adult care facilities. This data does not reflect COVID-19 confirmed or COVID-19 presumed positive deaths that occurred outside of the facility.

[Latrinsorm]

If a state has 10,000 nursing home deaths and 20,000 other deaths and another state has 10 nursing home deaths and 20 other deaths, there's no indication either state has a better or worse nursing home policy, just that the first state has a higher number of deaths in general.

If you don't like using age as a proxy, we can go to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which is keeping track of all nursing home deaths (https://data.cms.gov/Special-Programs-Initiatives-COVID-19-Nursing-Home/COVID-19-Nursing-Home-Dataset/s2uc-8wxp). According to them 40,173 nursing home residents have died of COVID-19, or 27% of all COVID-19 deaths. In New York that figure is 13%, or 43rd highest in the nation. Notice, if you will, how well #43 tracks with #41! Age as a proxy worked out pretty well, eh?

Now it could be that the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Trump administration are in the bag for Governor Cuomo, or it could be that a New York Post opinion piece isn't the most reliable source of facts in the world. Which do you think is more likely?

[Tgo01]

According to them 40,173 nursing home residents have died of COVID-19, or 27% of all COVID-19 deaths. In New York that figure is 13%, or 43rd highest in the nation.

Again this is because NY is obfuscating the number of deaths from nursing homes by only counting nursing home deaths if the person literally died in the nursing home.

[Parkbandit]

https://media1.giphy.com/media/ToMjGpwRmqS5SlRTGP6/source.gif

[Parkbandit]

https://i.gifer.com/Gra7.gif

[Tgo01]

https://i.gifer.com/Gra7.gif

Shockingly the usual band of idiots who mock me for blaming Cuomo are no where to be found after I provided a link from NY's own website showing they are actively suppressing the number of nursing home deaths in the state.

I can't possibly imagine why NY would try and conceal the try number of nursing home deaths. What ever could the reason be? Because as we all know innocent people always try to obscure things.

I used to wonder why governments did shit like this, like just so blatantly fudge numbers or events like this, did they think no one would be able to see right through their shit? Then COVID came around and we see shit like NY fudging their numbers of nursing home murders...er I mean deaths, states like California openly admitted they are including drug overdoses and car accident deaths in their official COVID related deaths, and many people see nothing wrong with this and in fact even use these clearly false numbers to argue their points, even AFTER being showed the proof that the numbers they are relying on are indeed false.

[Tgo01]

Now it could be that the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Trump administration are in the bag for Governor Cuomo, or it could be that a New York Post opinion piece isn't the most reliable source of facts in the world. Which do you think is more likely?

I didn't even notice this gem yesterday when I replied.

All of these studies only have the data that states provide to them. They have no way of knowing how many nursing home residents have died to COVID-19, they only have the information reported by the states.

I had a feeling you would pull out the "But that article is filled with lies!" which is why in the very next post I provided you a link from NY state itself. In case you missed that here it is again:

https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/diseases/covid-19/fatalities_nursing_home_acf.pdf


Nursing Home and ACF COVID Related Deaths Statewide

This data captures COVID-19 confirmed and COVID-19 presumed deaths within nursing homes and adult care facilities. This data does not reflect COVID-19 confirmed or COVID-19 presumed positive deaths that occurred outside of the facility.

Boom! Right there in black and white. They are not including data from COVID-19 confirmed nor COVID-19 presumed positive deaths of nursing home residents who died outside of the facility.

[Latrinsorm]

Again this is because NY is obfuscating the number of deaths from nursing homes by only counting nursing home deaths if the person literally died in the nursing home.

You could have taken ten minutes and found that CMS has discrepancies for three of the first five nursing homes listed in New York: Hudson Park, Shaker Place, and St. Peter's... and overall they give a slightly lower figure than New York state's. Nobody's "obfuscating" or "suppressing" anything, this is the standard reporting for all states, so when we compare a state to all other states we can know any given state's ranking as pretty solid. This is further buttressed by my OP showing its age rate ranking cohering very well.

Someone told you a lie and you fell for it. It happens! It happens to everyone. All I'm saying is you don't have to keep falling for this particular lie anymore.

[Tgo01]

You could have taken ten minutes and found that CMS has discrepancies for three of the first five nursing homes listed in New York: Hudson Park, Shaker Place, and St. Peter's... and overall they give a slightly lower figure than New York state's. Nobody's "obfuscating" or "suppressing" anything, this is the standard reporting for all states, so when we compare a state to all other states we can know any given state's ranking as pretty solid. This is further buttressed by my OP showing its age rate ranking cohering very well.

Someone told you a lie and you fell for it. It happens! It happens to everyone. All I'm saying is you don't have to keep falling for this particular lie anymore.

Oh, Latrin, you've been gone for so long I forgot how intellectually dishonest you are in your arguments.

Latrin: NY did great! Here is proof showing their nursing home murder rate is low!
Tgo01: That's because NY is lying about their numbers, here is from NY's own website showing they are not sharing all of the data on the number of nursing home residents they have murdered.
Latrin: You're just being lied to!

[Latrinsorm]

Oh, Latrin, you've been gone for so long I forgot how intellectually dishonest you are in your arguments.

Latrin: NY did great! Here is proof showing their nursing home murder rate is low!
Tgo01: That's because NY is lying about their numbers, here is from NY's own website showing they are not sharing all of the data on the number of nursing home residents they have murdered.
Latrin: You're just being lied to!

Let's try it this way.

The New York Yankees report the batting average of Aaron Judge as hits divided by at-bats.
The New York Mets report the batting average of Peter "Pete" Alonso as hits divided by at-bats.
You are told that the New York Yankees do not count all plate appearances as at-bats.
You are also told that due to this Yankee LIE, Aaron Judge is a much worse hitter than is reported.

Obviously you would not fall for this stupid lie, because you know that no team counts all plate appearances as at-bats - it is a uniform standard across the sport of the base-ball that only a subset of plate appearances count as at-bats.

Right?

.

There's a reason we have to swear to tell the truth AND the whole truth AND nothing but the truth in a United States court of law - it is very easy to say something that is true and also misleads people who aren't terribly well-informed. In this case, I have proven in the OP that New York state is well below average in its proportion of COVID deaths suffered by those 85 or older - note that this has nothing at all to do with an explicit link to nursing homes! The CDC patiently looked at each death certificate and marked down the age written thereon, then the Kaiser took dickety two hours to count them all up and divide for you. You don't have to do any of that lame scut work for nerds! All you have to do is look at literally two numbers - the proportion of extreme elderly deaths suffered in New York (28%) and that proportion for the United States as a whole (33%).

And let me ask you this. You've been given plenty of sarcasm and attitude to regurgitate. Why haven't the people giving you your marching orders ever once given you an actual number that you could compare to the rest of the country? They want you to say New York state has 12k nursing home deaths, great. Compared to what? Why won't they give you a compared to what? Do they think you're incapable of recognizing one number is bigger than another number?

You can prove them wrong. Of course, you'll have to prove me right to do so, but these are the breaks. :D

[Tgo01]

Let's try it this way.

The New York Yankees report the batting average of Aaron Judge as hits divided by at-bats.
The New York Mets report the batting average of Peter "Pete" Alonso as hits divided by at-bats.
You are told that the New York Yankees do not count all plate appearances as at-bats.
You are also told that due to this Yankee LIE, Aaron Judge is a much worse hitter than is reported.

Obviously you would not fall for this stupid lie, because you know that no team counts all plate appearances as at-bats - it is a uniform standard across the sport of the base-ball that only a subset of plate appearances count as at-bats.

Right?

.

There's a reason we have to swear to tell the truth AND the whole truth AND nothing but the truth in a United States court of law - it is very easy to say something that is true and also misleads people who aren't terribly well-informed. In this case, I have proven in the OP that New York state is well below average in its proportion of COVID deaths suffered by those 85 or older - note that this has nothing at all to do with an explicit link to nursing homes! The CDC patiently looked at each death certificate and marked down the age written thereon, then the Kaiser took dickety two hours to count them all up and divide for you. You don't have to do any of that lame scut work for nerds! All you have to do is look at literally two numbers - the proportion of extreme elderly deaths suffered in New York (28%) and that proportion for the United States as a whole (33%).

And let me ask you this. You've been given plenty of sarcasm and attitude to regurgitate. Why haven't the people giving you your marching orders ever once given you an actual number that you could compare to the rest of the country? They want you to say New York state has 12k nursing home deaths, great. Compared to what? Why won't they give you a compared to what? Do they think you're incapable of recognizing one number is bigger than another number?

You can prove them wrong. Of course, you'll have to prove me right to do so, but these are the breaks. :D

Nope, your deflections have no power here.

Simple question: do you accept the fact that NY is fudging the numbers by not counting nursing home resident deaths if the deaths occurred outside of the nursing home? Before you answer be sure to read this again from NY's own website. Not some third party website, NY's own website:


Nursing Home and ACF COVID Related Deaths Statewide

This data captures COVID-19 confirmed and COVID-19 presumed deaths within nursing homes and adult care facilities. This data does not reflect COVID-19 confirmed or COVID-19 presumed positive deaths that occurred outside of the facility.

[Latrinsorm]

Nope, your deflections have no power here.

Simple question: do you accept the fact that NY is fudging the numbers by not counting nursing home resident deaths if the deaths occurred outside of the nursing home? Before you answer be sure to read this again from NY's own website. Not some third party website, NY's own website:

I accept that New York is treating coronavirus deaths in nursing homes like all other states do.

I further accept that all states are treating coronavirus deaths in nursing homes in a way that when taken out of context can appear to indicate malfeasance, but when kneejerk bias is restrained, on inspection does not.

[Tgo01]

I accept that New York is treating coronavirus deaths in nursing homes like all other states do.

Do they? Show me where other states have admitted that they only count nursing home resident deaths if the resident actually died in the nursing home.

[Latrinsorm]

Do they? Show me where other states have admitted that they only count nursing home resident deaths if the resident actually died in the nursing home.

I can't link it directly because it's a pdf download, but look for the FAQ on this site https://data.cms.gov/stories/s/COVID-19-Nursing-Home-Data/bkwz-xpvg/ and it will A this very F Q of yours - you can skip (1) since it only has to do with cases but (2)-(4) are all relevant.

[Tgo01]

I can't link it directly because it's a pdf download, but look for the FAQ on this site https://data.cms.gov/stories/s/COVID-19-Nursing-Home-Data/bkwz-xpvg/ and it will A this very F Q of yours - you can skip (1) since it only has to do with cases but (2)-(4) are all relevant.

Okay so nothing in the FAQ says what you said it said.

At this point you're just trying to sucker me into an endless debate with you when we both know I already won with my very first post in this thread, which was just 6 minutes after you posted.

That must be a PC record of completely destroying an argument in record time.

I'll have to check with the PC historian first though.

[Latrinsorm]

Okay so nothing in the FAQ says what you said it said.

At this point you're just trying to sucker me into an endless debate with you when we both know I already won with my very first post in this thread, which was just 6 minutes after you posted.

That must be a PC record of completely destroying an argument in record time.

I'll have to check with the PC historian first though.

"The data posted by CMS on the COVID-19 Nursing Home Data website is reported by nursing homes and collected at the federal level by the CDC through the NHSN system. This system is separate from state level COVID-19 data collection efforts."

Combined with the fact that CMS has a lower total for New York than the state reports and I don't know how much more unambiguous you could possibly want it, but here we are again.