2020 Swing States

[ClydeR]

ElectoralVoteMap.com (https://electoralvotemap.com/) has moved Texas from a Republican state to a swing state. That site now has 7 swing states..

Arizona 11
Florida 29
Georgia 16
Iowa 6
North Carolina 15
Ohio 18
Texas 38

The above 7 swing states account for 133 electoral votes. If Trump wins all 7 swing states and Biden wins only the states currently shown on the map as leaning toward Biden, then Biden will still win.

The change in the map may have been prompted by Harry Enten's recent realization (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/12/politics/texas-swing-state-2020-election-polls/index.html) that every recent poll of Texas has shown the state as one point or so apart, which is much closer than most of the other swing state polls.

270towin.com still has Texas listed as leans Republican, and that site also lists Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nebraska-1 as swing states.

[Bhaalizmo]

Sure is looking like a blue avalanche.

Rightly so. The shit show has got to go.

[Seran]

ElectoralVoteMap.com (https://electoralvotemap.com/) has moved Texas from a Republican state to a swing state. That site now has 7 swing states..

Arizona 11
Florida 29
Georgia 16
Iowa 6
North Carolina 15
Ohio 18
Texas 38

The above 7 swing states account for 133 electoral votes. If Trump wins all 7 swing states and Biden wins only the states currently shown on the map as leaning toward Biden, then Biden will still win.

The change in the map may have been prompted by Harry Enten's recent realization (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/12/politics/texas-swing-state-2020-election-polls/index.html) that every recent poll of Texas has shown the state as one point or so apart, which is much closer than most of the other swing state polls.

270towin.com still has Texas listed as leans Republican, and that site also lists Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nebraska-1 as swing states.

Hoping this doesn't become a 2016 shit show. Biden's commitment on his VP selection makes me worried.

[RichardCranium]

Sure is looking like a blue avalanche.

Rightly so. The shit show has got to go.

Biden has no shot whatsoever to win the electoral vote.

[Parkbandit]

Hoping this doesn't become a 2016 shit show. Biden's commitment on his VP selection makes me worried.

Let's be honest.. he won't have a choice. His handlers will select the best POC female candidate in a swing state that they can.. and Biden will just have to accept it.

[Seran]

Let's be honest.. he won't have a choice. His handlers will select the best POC female candidate in a swing state that they can.. and Biden will just have to accept it.

I wouldn't doubt his being saddled with a female minority version of Tim Kaine.

[~Rocktar~]

Once his VP pick is up, and once a bit of campaign advertising gets going for real, Biden is likely to be wiped off the map. With his gaffs and the pure stupidity of his platform combined with whatever idiot they saddle him with as VP, he will be hit more times than a 10 pound blunt at a Grateful Dead concert.

I would also not doubt a trial case of sliding Hillary in somewhere because "It's her turn".

[time4fun]

ElectoralVoteMap.com (https://electoralvotemap.com/) has moved Texas from a Republican state to a swing state. That site now has 7 swing states..

Arizona 11
Florida 29
Georgia 16
Iowa 6
North Carolina 15
Ohio 18
Texas 38

The above 7 swing states account for 133 electoral votes. If Trump wins all 7 swing states and Biden wins only the states currently shown on the map as leaning toward Biden, then Biden will still win.

The change in the map may have been prompted by Harry Enten's recent realization (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/12/politics/texas-swing-state-2020-election-polls/index.html) that every recent poll of Texas has shown the state as one point or so apart, which is much closer than most of the other swing state polls.

270towin.com still has Texas listed as leans Republican, and that site also lists Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nebraska-1 as swing states.

Don't get me wrong- the fact that Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio are all on the "more or less" swing state list is a testament to just how bad things are for Trump currently. But if you look at a lot of these state polls in the traditionally red states on the list, there's generally a pretty high percentage of undecided voters. Presumably a big chunk of those voters are going to "come home" to the GOP by the time November comes around. So I wouldn't expect that Trump is actually going to lose Texas or Georgia, for example. (Though sure, it's possible)

But I will say that he's more or less been down in Arizona for months. He only won by 4 points the first time, and, in general, his approval ratings have slide by far more than 4 points. And that goes for pretty much every state in the union at this point.

Calling Michigan or Pennsylvania swing states right now is bordering on stretching it- he hasn't been up in those states in a long time.

The biggest wild cards right now though are COVID and voter suppression. The GOP is already out in full force suing to keep states from allowing mail-in ballots, and they will be there on election day to try to invalidate as many ballots in Democratic areas as they can (as they believe they do better when fewer people vote)- which is evil under any circumstances but is ESPECIALLY evil when we're in the midst of a pandemic.

Also mail-in ballots are far more likely to get rejected than in-person ballots- which is potentially going to cause a massive problem for Democrats- who are more likely to be taking COVID seriously and therefore are less likely to vote in-person come election day.

That may be more than enough to get the GOP where it needs to be in some key states.

[Astray]

But I will say that he's more or less been down in Arizona for months.

He'll take Arizona again, if he runs.

[beldannon5]

voter supression? what about all the dead people that will be voting democrat oh and illegals?

[beldannon5]

Once his VP pick is up, and once a bit of campaign advertising gets going for real, Biden is likely to be wiped off the map. With his gaffs and the pure stupidity of his platform combined with whatever idiot they saddle him with as VP, he will be hit more times than a 10 pound blunt at a Grateful Dead concert.

I would also not doubt a trial case of sliding Hillary in somewhere because "It's her turn".

Is that how Hillary gets to be President? Biden dies of something (covid) and low and behold she gets to be President afterall. Damn that woudl be sucky

[Astray]

Is that how Hillary gets to be President? Biden dies of something (covid) and low and behold she gets to be President afterall. Damn that woudl be sucky

Covid really didn't need to put two in the back of Biden's head. What a vicious virus.

[time4fun]

voter supression? what about all the dead people that will be voting democrat oh and illegals?

Uh huh. I don't suppose you have any credible, non-partisan sources that prove we've had large numbers of dead people voting and undocumented immigrants doing the same?

Of course I can save you the trouble- there aren't any. Trump's own "Voter Fraud" commission had to disband after 6 months because even they couldn't find any evidence of widespread voter fraud, least of all any that actually had the ability to affect the outcome of an election.

The "dead people are voting!" myth (it's a lie actually) is a distortion of the fact that voter registration forms (read: NOT Ballots) get sent to dead people all the time. And they absolutely do. Because when someone dies, no one says to themselves- "Oh hey, let me hold off on the funeral planning. I REALLY need to tell the State Election board that my husband is dead". Voter Boards use the returned mail to help them remove dead people from the list.

You've also undoubtedly heard those scandalous stories of cats getting voter registration forms mailed to them (!!!!!). Fun fact- ANYONE can send you a voter registration form. Third party organizations are actually a huge source of voter registration. Remember those college voter registration drives? Yeah, those forms weren't coming from the State Election board. So when you see crazy things like that- it means someone bought a list of addresses and mailed voter registration forms to that list- which undoubtedly included fake names and addresses because sometimes people think it's funny to register for a list under their cat's name.

As for undocumented immigrants- you're smarter than this Beld. No undocumented immigrant is going to risk being deported so they can (somehow? magically?) cast a single vote in an election. That vote will have no impact on things for the election, but it could destroy their life. Assuming they could even do it. You can't register if you're undocumented. So it's not even clear in this insane scenario how they managed to register, come up with fake proof that they're someone else, or decided to use one of their 3 Genie wishes to cast a single vote.

In sum: voter suppression IS REAL.
Widespread voter fraud is IMAGINARY.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

giggle

[time4fun]

He'll take Arizona again, if he runs.

He could, but there's reason at this point to say that Biden is the nominal favorite- at least- to take Arizona.

1) In the Senate race, since April (11 polls) Kelly has only lost to McSally once. (And it was a low quality poll) Kelly has been up between 4-15 (with the majority of polls having Kelly up by at least 9) in every other one. And AZ just elected another Democratic Senator in 2018. So there's other evidence, aside from Presidential polling, that top of ticket voters are leaning Democratic right now in AZ.

2) In the last 15 Presidential polls in AZ (All polling since April), Trump has been up in 2 polls, and they've been tied in one (though it's the most recent one). Biden lead in the other 12 polls. And in the AZ polls, unlike a lot of other state polling, there's been a pretty low number of undecided voters.

So at this point, it would defy the evidence to suggest that AZ is definitely in the bag for Trump.

Could he win AZ? Of course- it's Arizona. (And I grew up there- so I know a thing or two about it) But it's not looking good for Trump in AZ right now, to say the least.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

Of course it knows about Arizona. It knows about ERITING

[time4fun]

Of course it knows about Arizona. It knows about ERITING

Which I guess makes me your foil.

[Astray]

(And I grew up there- so I know a thing or two about it)

God I really hope I bullied you.

[Neveragain]

At this point and time I would give Iowa to Biden by a very narrow lead.

[Shaps]

Examples asked for... examples given - Took 30 seconds of googling "votes not counted" - All this year - I get that certain news organizations do not report these things, so I'm more than happy to assist.

https://www.kcra.com/article/100000-mail-in-votes-went-uncounted-california-primary/33297339 - California
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/06/29/more-than-18000-mail-ballots-not-counted-in-floridas-march-presidential-preference-primary/ - Florida
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/07/danger-moving-vote-by-mail-168602 - Georgia
https://www.npr.org/2020/07/13/889751095/signed-sealed-undelivered-thousands-of-mail-in-ballots-rejected-for-tardiness - Nice little chart with some %'s to include up to over 5% of Virginia's

Etc, etc, etc.

I'm sure nothing like this will happen in future elections.

[ClydeR]

. . . if he runs.



You have a doubt?

[time4fun]

God I really hope I bullied you.

Oh sweetie. The pretty, popular people didn't get bullied.

It's far more likely that I bullied you.

[time4fun]

Examples asked for... examples given - Took 30 seconds of googling "votes not counted" - All this year - I get that certain news organizations do not report these things, so I'm more than happy to assist.

https://www.kcra.com/article/100000-mail-in-votes-went-uncounted-california-primary/33297339 - California
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/06/29/more-than-18000-mail-ballots-not-counted-in-floridas-march-presidential-preference-primary/ - Florida
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/07/danger-moving-vote-by-mail-168602 - Georgia
https://www.npr.org/2020/07/13/889751095/signed-sealed-undelivered-thousands-of-mail-in-ballots-rejected-for-tardiness - Nice little chart with some %'s to include up to over 5% of Virginia's

Etc, etc, etc.

I'm sure nothing like this will happen in future elections.

"It took 30 seconds to verify this was true/not true" is basically the theme of these threads.

There's a reason why they don't ever bother doing research- they know it doesn't break their way when facts get involved.

[Astray]

You have a doubt?

I do.


Oh sweetie. The pretty, popular people didn't get bullied.

It's far more likely that I bullied you.

Yeah, sure you did. Now get back in your locker.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

Oh sweetie. The pretty, popular people didn't get bullied.

It's far more likely that I bullied you.

Oh sweetie... this is so so so fucking funny.

[Parkbandit]

Could he win AZ? Of course- it's Arizona. (And I grew up there- so I know a thing or two about it)

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oEdvagoFRIEUcsgN2/giphy.gif

[Parkbandit]

Oh sweetie. The pretty, popular people didn't get bullied.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oEdvagoFRIEUcsgN2/giphy.gif

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oEdvagoFRIEUcsgN2/giphy.gif

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oEdvagoFRIEUcsgN2/giphy.gif

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oEdvagoFRIEUcsgN2/giphy.gif

[Bhaalizmo]

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oEdvagoFRIEUcsgN2/giphy.gif

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oEdvagoFRIEUcsgN2/giphy.gif

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oEdvagoFRIEUcsgN2/giphy.gif

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oEdvagoFRIEUcsgN2/giphy.gif

I see you're a fan of narcissistic assholes

[Parkbandit]

I see you're a fan of narcissistic assholes

Yes. My entire reasoning to post that gif was because it was Michael Jordan.

You nailed it.

Really.

If I get another solid week from you of this effort.. I'll make the championship match.

You've really put forth an effort and I think you are very deserving.

Keep it up and do NOT let me down. 7/21/20 isn't that far away.

[Bhaalizmo]

I'm a pretty pony

Weird.

[time4fun]

I see you're a fan of narcissistic assholes

It would explain his politics.

[Wrathbringer]

Oh sweetie. The pretty, popular people didn't get bullied.

It's far more likely that I bullied you.

Riiiiiiiiiight...Says the person everyone in gs laughs at. :lol:

Lol@your rep, btw.

[Parkbandit]

I post degrading pictures of women because quite frankly I don't like women. Fuck them.. because I sure won't.

We know.

[Bhaalizmo]

We know.

Keep my dick off your lips.

[Parkbandit]

I love my lips on any dick.

TMI

[Bhaalizmo]

It would explain his politics.

True, which is why I said something. It's like seeing a maga hat wearer wave a rebel flag for the first time. One makes the other make sense, at least in the context of that depravity.

[Gelston]

Now on top of multiple PhDs, illegal immigrant relatives, POC boyfriend, having taught courses on Logic, evacuating a building during 9/11, she also grew up in Az so she knows more than someone else about the place.

[~Rocktar~]

You forgot advising the UN.

[time4fun]

Now on top of multiple PhDs, illegal immigrant relatives, POC boyfriend, having taught courses on Logic, evacuating a building during 9/11, she also grew up in Az so she knows more than someone else about the place.

"WHAT? THERE'S NO WAY YOU LIVED IN ARIZONA! I REFUSE TO BELIEVE IT!"

Eek. Sad.

[Astray]

"WHAT? THERE'S NO WAY YOU LIVED IN ARIZONA! I REFUSE TO BELIEVE IT!"

Eek. Sad.

Out of curiosity, what part of Arizona?

[Wrathbringer]

Out of curiosity, what part of Arizona?

Libtardia, AZ

[time4fun]

Out of curiosity, what part of Arizona?

Gilbert. But back when it was all fields. They literally did team penning competitions in this little ranch-like spot on the other side of my development.

Now I go back, and I'm like- why the heck couldn't I have grown up in this version??

[Astray]

Libtardia, AZ

AKA Flagstaff

[Wrathbringer]

AKA Fagstaff

Fixed

[Astray]

Gilbert.

You give off a real Kingman vibe.

[Candor]

I have two primary problems with polls.

First, they aren't always as accurate as many people believe. Remember how Clinton was supposed to be a certain winner back in 2016? Second, polls have a nasty habit of convincing some people that they don't have to bother to vote, which does the nation a disservice.

So I'll take a look at the polls every so often, but I don't have much confidence in them.

[Parkbandit]

Now on top of multiple PhDs, illegal immigrant relatives, POC boyfriend, having taught courses on Logic, evacuating a building during 9/11, she also grew up in Az so she knows more than someone else about the place.

Not sure how you can question her.. she already said she grew up in Arizona and thus makes her the expert on all things about Arizona.

Ballipsmo needs to up his game if he's going to compete on the 21st.

[Gelston]

Not sure how you can question her.. she already said she grew up in Arizona and thus makes her the expert on all things about Arizona.

Ballipsmo needs to up his game if he's going to compete on the 21st.

Yeah, she grew up there, so she is an expert on it over someone that currently lives there. Just like she was an expert on Hillary winning the election.

[Bhaalizmo]

Bhaalizmo needs to up his game if he's going to compete on the 21st.

Boy you sure do keep thinkin about me don't you. It's like the convo just comes back around and you just can't keep my dick I mean name out your mouth.

It's not a good look. Maybe try talking about anything else for a change, it's starting to look weird. I mean it has been weird. But now it's still weird.

[time4fun]

AKA Flagstaff

I think you mean Tucson

[ClydeR]

I've always want to talk to somebody from Arizona. So many questions. Were you ever in a haboob? Is it true that everybody in Arizona carries a black light at night? Do you have a cow skull on your car hood? Do tumbleweeds really cover up people's houses?

[beldannon5]

I lived there for 3 years. no, no, no and maybe

[Seran]

I've always want to talk to somebody from Arizona. So many questions. Were you ever in a haboob? Is it true that everybody in Arizona carries a black light at night? Do you have a cow skull on your car hood? Do tumbleweeds really cover up people's houses?

What's funny is I use the blacklight thing in Nor Cal to avoid spiders and scorpions.

[Taernath]

You give off a real Kingman vibe.

More like big Scottsdale energy.

Are you tired of those dancing astronaut commercials yet?

[Parkbandit]

Boy you sure do keep thinkin about me don't you. It's like the convo just comes back around and you just can't keep my dick I mean name out your mouth.

It's not a good look. Maybe try talking about anything else for a change, it's starting to look weird. I mean it has been weird. But now it's still weird.

Sorry.. I just have a real curiosity for those people who are legitimately retarded. Like how do you function on a daily basis?

Does someone have to help you get to this site every day or do you just keep it on?

[Bhaalizmo]

Sorry.. HURRDURR

Well you see, go fuck your mother.

[time4fun]

I lived there for 3 years. no, no, no and maybe

That was a very accurate set of responses.

[time4fun]

I have two primary problems with polls.

First, they aren't always as accurate as many people believe. Remember how Clinton was supposed to be a certain winner back in 2016? Second, polls have a nasty habit of convincing some people that they don't have to bother to vote, which does the nation a disservice.

So I'll take a look at the polls every so often, but I don't have much confidence in them.

The 2016 national polls were very accurate. We just didn't have a lot of great state polling in some key states that everyone just assumed would go a certain way. I think the 2016 election just shows us that things can change very quickly is all. Things went downhill very quickly after that press conference Comey decided to hold about a month before the election. Also it's sort of hard for polling to account for massive interference by foreign powers.

I do agree that they can convince people not to show up. A lot of people didn't bother showing up in 2016 because they just assumed Clinton could win. I don't know that we're going to see that happen this time around. But COVID and voter suppression still have big roles to play potentially, of course.

But it's really worth reminding everyone that the 2018 polling was spot on.

[time4fun]

Yeah, she grew up there, so she is an expert on it over someone that currently lives there. Just like she was an expert on Hillary winning the election.

I just want to say how much I appreciate the fact that you still manage to find time to come visit our humble little politics folder. I mean, your advanced epidemiological studies must take up so much of your day! It's been so impressive to witness the way your brilliant, and innate, understanding of the field has allowed you to fundamentally understand COVID and its consequences better than the CDC or the WHO!

I wonder though- have you had a chance yet to call them up and explain to them that their COVID death counts aren't being done properly? Or that there aren't actually millions of people infected in the US? Or that not enough people are dying to take it as seriously as they are?

Please don't keep your brilliance to yourself. You have the power to change the world Gelston. You really do.

And do us a favor- can you record that call and share it back? I'm sure we'd all really appreciate what we'd learn from it!

[Parkbandit]

I'm gay because my mother rejected my come ons... and I thought no woman could ever love me.

Well you see, go fuck off.

[Parkbandit]

The 2016 national polls were very accurate. We just didn't have a lot of great state polling in some key states that everyone just assumed would go a certain way. I think the 2016 election just shows us that things can change very quickly is all. Things went downhill very quickly after that press conference Comey decided to hold about a month before the election. Also it's sort of hard for polling to account for massive interference by foreign powers.

I do agree that they can convince people not to show up. A lot of people didn't bother showing up in 2016 because they just assumed Clinton could win. I don't know that we're going to see that happen this time around. But COVID and voter suppression still have big roles to play potentially, of course.

But it's really worth reminding everyone that the 2018 polling was spot on.

Remember how the day after the 2016 election, you were the most scared you have ever been in your adult life?

I honestly hope 2020 is 1000x worse for you.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

after that press conference Comey decided to hold about a month before the election

Get ready to freak the fuck out when the Durham report comes out right before the election.

[time4fun]

Get ready to freak the fuck out when the Durham report comes out right before the election.

Please tell me you're not so far gone that you don't understand that the Durham investigation is completely politically motivated?

Did you even bother to read the Horowitz report?

Do you understand how incredibly inappropriate it was to use a Federal prosecutor to evaluate Intelligence reports? And for Barr to continually give interviews where he gave his own personal- and totally unsubstantiated- opinions on both investigations?

The original people who were being investigated were also all people Trump had repeatedly, and publicly attacked.

If you think Durham is anything other than a canned job to create a counter-narrative to what we found out Trump and his associates did during the Campaign- you're an even bigger fool than I already take you for.

[Alfster]

Get ready to freak the fuck out when the Durham report comes out right before the election.

This one? Because this one is likely to be punted beyond the election before it is released.

Barr, though, has said that he does not expect Durham's findings will lead to a “criminal investigation” of either former President Barack Obama or former Vice President Joe Biden -- while noting that their concern of “potential criminality” in the conduct of that probe is “focused on others.”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/durham-under-pressure-to-wrap-up-investigation-could-punt-to-after-election-day-source.amp

[~Rocktar~]

Please tell me you're not so far gone that you don't understand that the Durham investigation is completely politically motivated?

And yet you proclaimed the impartiality and fairness of Mueller, how do you live with that much cognitive dissonance in your head? Why do you want to cover up the crimes of the previous administration? Not even going into how Obama went after and continues to go after Trump in his classless, tasteless, narcissistic way as well as how inappropriate the whole FISA abuse and so on was.

[Bhaalizmo]

And yet you proclaimed the impartiality and fairness of Mueller, how do you live with that much cognitive dissonance in your head? Why do you want to cover up the crimes of the previous administration? Not even going into how Obama went after and continues to go after Trump in his classless, tasteless, narcissistic way as well as how inappropriate the whole FISA abuse and so on was.

I'm sorry, we're saying Trump = Classy and Obama = Classless? The grab em by the pussy guy? You're straight up off your rocker, go back to sucking cheetos.

[Neveragain]

This is a must watch:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQMneGmjZxM

[Shaps]

This is a must watch:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQMneGmjZxM

That guy should immediately be pardoned and reimbursed. How the hell the law allows this to happen when the guy has an actual prescription and diagnosis is absurd. Hopefully someone higher up the chain remedies it quickly.

Edit: So long as the facts reported in the segment are complete. I didn't research anything further on it.

[~Rocktar~]

I'm sorry, we're saying Trump = Classy and Obama = Classless? The grab em by the pussy guy? You're straight up off your rocker, go back to sucking cheetos.

YAY, let's continue to make fucking dumbass assumptions because they fit our narrative of "Orange man bad". I said nothing about Trump other than he is the target of Obama's bullshit and likely criminal activities. Now fuck off racist.