UFC 229

[Stumplicker]

Anybody else waiting with bated breath for this? It's a huge amount of buildup for a fight everyone wants to see, but everything points to it being a short, lopsided fight one way or the other.

Personally I think Khabib is going to do exactly what he's done for his last 26 wins, grab onto Conor and just smother him, but Conor is Conor and could start, and finish landing before Khabib has the chance to do his thing.

[Gelston]

no

[peam]

I'm holding my breath hoping the MMA gods don't claim a sacrifice.

I *think* that Khabib will get inside and be able to stick to McGregor much like he did against Barboza, but McGregor's a different animal and could absolutely put him on the mat.

Ferguson/Pettis is a great fight. I hope Ferguson wins and immediately gets back in the title picture. Ferguson/Nurmagomedov is a dream fight.

Derrick Lewis black beasting his way to a win over Volkov and putting himself in the HW title picture would be money too.

I'm super pumped for this card, even aside from the main event.

[Stumplicker]

I'm holding my breath hoping the MMA gods don't claim a sacrifice.

I *think* that Khabib will get inside and be able to stick to McGregor much like he did against Barboza, but McGregor's a different animal and could absolutely put him on the mat.

Ferguson/Pettis is a great fight. I hope Ferguson wins and immediately gets back in the title picture. Ferguson/Nurmagomedov is a dream fight.

Derrick Lewis black beasting his way to a win over Volkov and putting himself in the HW title picture would be money too.

I'm super pumped for this card, even aside from the main event.

That's a good point. The Volkov fight has the potential to be pretty awesome also.

I finally got around to watching 228 last night. Has there been any mention since of what the main event on 230 might be? They mentioned that "they knew some things" but nothing had yet been set in stone. Brock Lesnar vs. Jon Jones 'roid match?! That card looks pretty nice so far too. It's nice to see Nate Diaz stopped whining about how unfair it all is long enough to take another fight.

[peam]

That's a good point. The Volkov fight has the potential to be pretty awesome also.

I finally got around to watching 228 last night. Has there been any mention since of what the main event on 230 might be? They mentioned that "they knew some things" but nothing had yet been set in stone. Brock Lesnar vs. Jon Jones 'roid match?! That card looks pretty nice so far too. It's nice to see Nate Diaz stopped whining about how unfair it all is long enough to take another fight.

I'll legit be shocked if they cut Jones' suspension that short, but they'll want a superstar for MSG.

I wish they'd hurry up and make the 165 division. GSP vs. whoever.

[beldar17]

Yeah I am expecting to see Khabib smother him, since he seems to be able to take punches well......Conor will be gassed by third round and maybe submit.

Obviously I would like to see conor KO him cause no one wants to see a 5 round ground fight. Afraid to bet.

[Stumplicker]

I wish they'd hurry up and make the 165 division. GSP vs. whoever.

GSP vs. Cris Cyborg. Now there's a fight. GSP is like 58 years old. Cyborg has decidedly less testosterone than GSP. It's a fair fight. For the Andy Kaufman Memorial Belt!

[Stumplicker]

Yeah I am expecting to see Khabib smother him, since he seems to be able to take punches well......Conor will be gassed by third round and maybe submit.

Obviously I would like to see conor KO him cause no one wants to see a 5 round ground fight. Afraid to bet.

I forget who it was against, his last fight I think, but I remember the commentators being shocked that Khabib was standing up (and winning). I mean, he's known for being that epic ground guy, but yeah he can definitely stand up. I don't think it's on the same level as Conor's standup obviously, but like you said...Conor's style leaves him gassed after about a round and a half. If Khabib can weather the storm and still have something left in the tank at that point..I don't think there's any question as to the outcome.

[peam]

I forget who it was against, his last fight I think, but I remember the commentators being shocked that Khabib was standing up (and winning). I mean, he's known for being that epic ground guy, but yeah he can definitely stand up. I don't think it's on the same level as Conor's standup obviously, but like you said...Conor's style leaves him gassed after about a round and a half. If Khabib can weather the storm and still have something left in the tank at that point..I don't think there's any question as to the outcome.

Khabib's last fight against Iaquinta was a bit of an aberration.

Iaquinta is no slouch in wrestling, but both him and his trainers knew Khabib is next level. After being mauled for a round or two, we saw Iaquinta adopt a more traditional wrestling stance.

This makes being taken down exponentially more difficult, but leaves a fighter with compromised striking defense. I think that the idea from Iaquinta's corner was to keep things on the feet and hope to land a KO shot in a standing exchange. That, of course, didn't happen and Khabib was more than happy to jab Iaquinta's nose into oblivion.

McGregor is a different animal when it comes to striking. Khabib regularly eats shots on his way in, which McGregor could take advantage of if he lands a super crisp shot.

That said, if you're thinking about betting on Khabib, I'd wait until the day before or day of the fight. Khabib is something like -155 right now. I think a ton of money will come in late and either push McGregor to be the favorite or at least get the odds close to a PK.

[Stumplicker]

I dunno. I think Conor's fights with Diaz really hurt his betting pool. Going up a weight class or not, all people remember is that he got beat, and beat soundly, and had very close fights, all of which he could've lost. Before that he was seen as almost immortal. That's where Khabib is now. He hasn't had that loss, or even that real close fight (now that he's in his prime) to show people he could possibly lose. I hadn't yet looked, but -155 is right about where I would've guessed it'd be.

I will be betting, and you're right I should and likely will wait. I don't think it'll get worse, but it could get better. I just don't think it's gonna hit even numbers after the Diaz fights.

[peam]

I dunno. I think Conor's fights with Diaz really hurt his betting pool. Going up a weight class or not, all people remember is that he got beat, and beat soundly, and had very close fights, all of which he could've lost. Before that he was seen as almost immortal. That's where Khabib is now. He hasn't had that loss, or even that real close fight (now that he's in his prime) to show people he could possibly lose. I hadn't yet looked, but -155 is right about where I would've guessed it'd be.

I will be betting, and you're right I should and likely will wait. I don't think it'll get worse, but it could get better. I just don't think it's gonna hit even numbers after the Diaz fights.

I don't disagree with what you're saying, but the Irish ALWAYS throw a ton of money on McGregor. Look at how the McG/Mayweather line moved (in a fight that no one with knowledge of the sport believed he had a chance in) the days leading up to the fight. I think it was something like +1100 and moved down to +350 or something silly - with Mayweather moving from -2500 to -400.

Russian money could come in to counter-act the Irish money coming in. Khabib is a huge, huge, huge star in the country, but I haven't seen evidence of the fanaticism that McG inspires.

[Stumplicker]

I don't disagree with what you're saying, but the Irish ALWAYS throw a ton of money on McGregor. Look at how the McG/Mayweather line moved (in a fight that no one with knowledge of the sport believed he had a chance in) the days leading up to the fight. I think it was something like +1100 and moved down to +350 or something silly - with Mayweather moving from -2500 to -400.

Russian money could come in to counter-act the Irish money coming in. Khabib is a huge, huge, huge star in the country, but I haven't seen evidence of the fanaticism that McG inspires.

Haha, that's a good point. One of Conor's fights in the US or Brazil was straight up attended by a ton of Irish people flying in from Ireland to see it if I remember correctly. They could definitely move that line.

[beldar17]

Diaz is just a dumb piece of board that is good at taking damage. It was like what a week or two and conor agreed to fight him at 170? There are a lot of factors there. And beat soundly is not a good description of that fight. Diaz look like a truck ran over him after just one round. Conor had no cardio apparently OR he landed huge shots that would of felled any other human at 155. Cept he agreed to fight him at 170. If Nate had agreed to cut down, then HIS cardio would of been fucked. lot of factors to consider.....

[Stumplicker]

Diaz is just a dumb piece of board that is good at taking damage. It was like what a week or two and conor agreed to fight him at 170? There are a lot of factors there. And beat soundly is not a good description of that fight. Diaz look like a truck ran over him after just one round. Conor had no cardio apparently OR he landed huge shots that would of felled any other human at 155. Cept he agreed to fight him at 170. If Nate had agreed to cut down, then HIS cardio would of been fucked. lot of factors to consider.....

Oh no doubt. It was a matchup that was not fair from the beginning. Conor moved up maybe even beyond his natural weight to fight without a cut. All I meant though is that there wasn't so pronounced a physical difference between them that watching those two fights would make you say "Oh well of course he lost. Brock Lesnar is 8 feet tall and weighs 400 pounds". You see two kind of similarly built fighters in a close match, and one of them that used to look invincible now looks just like a really good fighter. That sort of thing can sway the bets when his next opponent is someone who still looks invincible.