the non-intuitive math of the earth lore roulette

[gilchristr]

All the earth lore effects has a low chance of occurring, but assuming all of them have an independent chance of occurring, the odds of at least one of them going off on a giving attack can be calculated, and it might be higher than you think (it was higher than I thought before I did the math...)

So that you can calculate yourself, the chance of at least one effect going off on an attack = 1 - (probability of activation 1)*(probability of activation 2) ... *(probability of activation n).

For instance, assuming one gets 5% deflection from elemental defense, 3% for 430, 3% from 503, 5% from 507, the chance of at least one of this features activating on an attack is 1-.95*.97*.97*.95 = 15%.

That's 1 in 7 from a bunch of things that have a 1 in 20 chance of worse to activate.

You can calculate your chances ... I think it gets real high at cap...

[Yulis]

Yes, but none of them really benefit you. It's a lot of flash that looks neat, but lacks any real substance if you ask me.

All in all, it's just a modge podge of small random chances to give a wizard something that's not very beneficial to their survival.

Here's the same spells having a chance to activate on my wizard (128 EL:E ranks). 9% for 430, 9% for 503 and 16% for 507 & 10% from 401/406/414.
1-.91*.91*.84*.9 = 37%

The questions I have:

What order do these spells sit on the check list? Is the elemental DS (401/406/414) first? Or does 503 go first? Or do the spells randomly go through the check?

If one spell triggers the % chance for it's provided benefit boost, do the other spells also still get a chance to active? Here's what I mean: The attack is going through all your spells, not just one. And perhaps 401/406/414 bonus didn't trigger, but 503 bonus triggers.....does the bonus from 430 have a chance to trigger as well? Shouldn't it make sense that all your spells that have a chance to trigger their bonus to go off on a single attack?

[Whirlin]

Well, there's a natural order of operations, and additional variables to be considered:
401/406/414 seem to proc occurs before AS/DS even appears to be prompted. It completely negates the attack from existing.
507 also occurs before AS/DS, but only applies to magical bolts
503 applies during AS/DS resolution
430/520 seem to occur in resolution of damage phase, after an AS/DS attack is resolved as being a hit


The biggest question when evaluating the benefit though is whether or not the attack would have hit you in the first place. It's all awesome and cool to see a ton of random procs and stuff, but if it's AS of 2 versus your DS of 8127143, it really doesn't matter that you got +23 on your DS.

Warmages tend to be more DS starved than a pure mage, so double dipping on the earth lore is a natural path for them. For a pure mage... the value just isn't there when compared to Fire or Air. That being said, once you're at 100ish fire lore, definitely pick some up, but I wouldn't prioritize earth lore.

[Methais]

All the earth lore effects has a low chance of occurring, but assuming all of them have an independent chance of occurring, the odds of at least one of them going off on a giving attack can be calculated, and it might be higher than you think (it was higher than I thought before I did the math...)

So that you can calculate yourself, the chance of at least one effect going off on an attack = 1 - (probability of activation 1)*(probability of activation 2) ... *(probability of activation n).

For instance, assuming one gets 5% deflection from elemental defense, 3% for 430, 3% from 503, 5% from 507, the chance of at least one of this features activating on an attack is 1-.95*.97*.97*.95 = 15%.

That's 1 in 7 from a bunch of things that have a 1 in 20 chance of worse to activate.

You can calculate your chances ... I think it gets real high at cap...

No. It sucks, the effects suck, the lore requirements suck, and Simu sucks for implementing slot machines instead of real fixes.

[gilchristr]

Yea, not saying these mechanics are a good fit with wizards (it seems like sort of a rogue paradigm)