GSTamral
11-18-2004, 02:50 PM
I wish I knew where it was, but some site actually had a literal formline equation correlating age vs political bias. They conducted a national sample by age over the course of 7 years (I believe the organizing foundation was 4 universities nationwide, with Texas A&M, Missouri (?), Florida A&M, and New Hampshire (?). They tried to see if they could analyze the whole red vs blue, which we currently see only in a geographic sense.
But the gist of it was basically this.
Blue is considered to be 1, Red is considered to be -1, Independent is considered to be 0. (Libertarians, due to mixed feelings about taxation and social values, were also considered a 0), Green Party, Communists and left groups were considered to be the equal of a 1, while Pat Buchanan supporters were considered to be a -1.
At the age of 18, basic voting age, nationwide, they found the gap to be 61% to 33% with 8% independent (which I know contrasts to the 56% to 41% we saw for the voting ages of 18-29 in this year's election), yielding a score of (.61 * 1 + .33* (-1) = .28
The basic form of equation they found was on the order of
.2something - .0something * (age - 18) + (.00something * (year-1995) - (.000something) * (age-18) * (year-1995)
What it means:
At younger ages, people tend to lean towards democrats: As they get older, they tend to lean more and more towards republicans.
Younger people, over time, are leaning more heavily to the left. 61% of 18 year olds this year, 61.5% next year, etc…
The tendency of people to lean more to the right is increasing with time as well. Instead of a 1% shift per year with this year's 18 year old group, it will be 2% with the people who are 18 next year, etc..
The threshold of crossing seems to be around the age of 33 for men, and 48 for women.
The number 1 stated influence in how the 18 year olds chose an initial side were their upbringing/teachers, which was the one thing I found to be the most appalling, for a few reasons.
1) Parents should be a larger influence than teachers in general.
2) Teachers in America aren't exactly the best group, and they have a political agenda.
3) Teachers should not be attempting to make political statements while teaching or during school hours. Being employees of the government, they should be barred from any political agenda during school hours or risk fines, the same way any other non-direct government paid employee is.
The number 1 reason that people decided to switch party affiliations for one reason or another was personal finances.
Here were some additional numbers that I remember:
1) People who work more than 60 hours a week were more than 65% to the right.
2) People who were on unemployment or employed part time were more than 70% to the left.
3) People who owned their own homes were more than 60% to the right.
4) Families with fewer than 3 children were more than 60% to the right.
5) Families with 3 children or more were almost evenly split, but I think slightly to the right.
6) Single people were more than 60% to the left.
7) Military and ex-military were more than 70% to the right, but the study was not scientific enough to make a statistical assessment with age.
Just looking at the numbers makes it kind of interesting to wonder how the socioeconomic perspectives of people, as well as factors other than geographic location influenced their personal agendas when voting.
If anyone has read the original article, or knows where it can be found now (It used to be somewhere on the Texas A&M political science pages, but since the study concluded in 2003, I guess they took it down), post up the link pls.
But the gist of it was basically this.
Blue is considered to be 1, Red is considered to be -1, Independent is considered to be 0. (Libertarians, due to mixed feelings about taxation and social values, were also considered a 0), Green Party, Communists and left groups were considered to be the equal of a 1, while Pat Buchanan supporters were considered to be a -1.
At the age of 18, basic voting age, nationwide, they found the gap to be 61% to 33% with 8% independent (which I know contrasts to the 56% to 41% we saw for the voting ages of 18-29 in this year's election), yielding a score of (.61 * 1 + .33* (-1) = .28
The basic form of equation they found was on the order of
.2something - .0something * (age - 18) + (.00something * (year-1995) - (.000something) * (age-18) * (year-1995)
What it means:
At younger ages, people tend to lean towards democrats: As they get older, they tend to lean more and more towards republicans.
Younger people, over time, are leaning more heavily to the left. 61% of 18 year olds this year, 61.5% next year, etc…
The tendency of people to lean more to the right is increasing with time as well. Instead of a 1% shift per year with this year's 18 year old group, it will be 2% with the people who are 18 next year, etc..
The threshold of crossing seems to be around the age of 33 for men, and 48 for women.
The number 1 stated influence in how the 18 year olds chose an initial side were their upbringing/teachers, which was the one thing I found to be the most appalling, for a few reasons.
1) Parents should be a larger influence than teachers in general.
2) Teachers in America aren't exactly the best group, and they have a political agenda.
3) Teachers should not be attempting to make political statements while teaching or during school hours. Being employees of the government, they should be barred from any political agenda during school hours or risk fines, the same way any other non-direct government paid employee is.
The number 1 reason that people decided to switch party affiliations for one reason or another was personal finances.
Here were some additional numbers that I remember:
1) People who work more than 60 hours a week were more than 65% to the right.
2) People who were on unemployment or employed part time were more than 70% to the left.
3) People who owned their own homes were more than 60% to the right.
4) Families with fewer than 3 children were more than 60% to the right.
5) Families with 3 children or more were almost evenly split, but I think slightly to the right.
6) Single people were more than 60% to the left.
7) Military and ex-military were more than 70% to the right, but the study was not scientific enough to make a statistical assessment with age.
Just looking at the numbers makes it kind of interesting to wonder how the socioeconomic perspectives of people, as well as factors other than geographic location influenced their personal agendas when voting.
If anyone has read the original article, or knows where it can be found now (It used to be somewhere on the Texas A&M political science pages, but since the study concluded in 2003, I guess they took it down), post up the link pls.