Pick Super Tuesday (Mar.1) primary/caucus winners

[Kembal]

Ok, there are 22 contests to pick on Tuesday. (I'm not including American Samoa, and the Colorado and Wyoming Republican caucuses will not produce any results on Tuesday, since that's only for delegate selection to the state convention.)

Post in this format:

Alabama - Republican/Democrat
Alaska - Republican only
Arkansas - Republican/Democrat
Colorado - Democrat only
Georgia - Republican/Democrat
Massachusetts - Republican/Democrat
Minnesota - Republican/Democrat
Oklahoma - Republican/Democrat
Tennessee - Republican/Democrat
Texas - Republican/Democrat
Vermont - Republican/Democrat
Virginia - Republican/Democrat

I'll post my picks in a separate post, and updated records will be posted tomorrow.

[Parkbandit]

Republican: Trump wins everything but Arkansas (Cruz), Texas (Cruz) and Colorado (Rubio)
Democrat: Clinton wins everything but Vermont (Sanders)

[Fallen]

Clinton for everything for Vermont, which will go to Sanders.
I'll say Trump for all S.T. states for shits and giggles.

[ClydeR]

|Rep.|Dem.
Alabama|Trump|Clinton
Alaska|Trump|
Arkansas|Trump|Clinton
Colorado||Clinton
Georgia|Trump|Clinton
Massachusetts|Trump|Clinton
Minnesota|Rubio|Clinton
Oklahoma|Trump|Sanders
Tennessee|Trump|Clinton
Texas|Cruz|Clinton
Vermont|Trump|Sanders
Virginia|Trump|Clinton

The italicized ones are the most difficult to predict, in my opinion.

The Democrat nominating contest is effectively over. There is still a small amount of uncertainty about who will be the Republican nominee, mainly because the Republican primary has a short fuse designed to bring the process to an early conclusion. That fuse triggers when the contest switches to mostly winner-take-all states on March 15, unlike the Democrats, for whom almost every state's delegates are awarded proportionally.

Several states, including Texas, have a 20% rule, which requires a candidate to get 20% of the vote to get any delegates. If a candidate falls below 20% in any of those states, or in some cases in any district in that state, then the candidate gets no delegates. A big thing to watch on Tuesday night will be if Rubio falls below 20% in Texas.

[Kembal]

Alabama - Trump/Clinton
Alaska - Trump
Arkansas - Trump/Clinton
Colorado - Sanders
Georgia - Trump/Clinton
Massachusetts - Trump/Sanders
Minnesota - Trump/Clinton
Oklahoma - Trump/Clinton
Tennessee - Trump/Clinton
Texas - Cruz/Clinton
Vermont - Trump/Sanders
Virginia - Rubio/Clinton

[Candor]

|Rep.|Dem.
Alabama|Trump|Clinton
Alaska|Trump|
Arkansas|Trump|Sanders
Colorado||Sanders
Georgia|Trump|Clinton
Massachusetts|Trump|Sanders
Minnesota|Trump|Sanders
Oklahoma|Cruz|Sanders
Tennessee|Trump|Clinton
Texas|Cruz|Clinton
Vermont|Trump|Sanders
Virginia|Trump|Clinton

[Archigeek]

[INDENT]|Rep.|Dem.
Alabama|Trump|Clinton
Alaska|Trump|
Arkansas|Trump|Clinton
Colorado||Sanders
Georgia|Trump|Clinton
Massachusetts|Rubio|Sanders
Minnesota|Rubio|Sanders
Oklahoma|Trump|Clinton
Tennessee|Trump|Clinton
Texas|Cruz|Clinton
Vermont|Trump|Sanders
Virginia|Trump|Clinton

[drauz]

Alabama - Trump/Clinton
Alaska - Trump
Arkansas - Trump/Clinton
Colorado - Sanders
Georgia - Cruz/Clinton
Massachusetts - Trump/Sanders
Minnesota - Trump/Clinton
Oklahoma - Cruz/Clinton
Tennessee - Trump/Clinton
Texas - Cruz/Clinton
Vermont - Trump/Sanders
Virginia - Trump/Clinton

[Tgo01]

Trump wins everything.
Clinton wins everything.

I win.

[ClydeR]

ABC's INES DE LA CUETARA: Speaking to reporters after his rally in Andover, Minnesota, Marco Rubio said this might not be such a great night for Donald Trump.

"We’re gonna have a lot of delegates after tonight and you’re gonna see very clearly after tonight that Donald Trump has no chance of ever getting the delegates he needs to be the nominee," he said.

More... (http://liveblog.abcnews.go.com/Event/Super_Tuesday_2016_Live_Updates_and_Analysis/237782840)

I can't see what benefit Rubio would get from making that statement today. If he's wrong, then it looks bad. If he's right, then he took an unnecessary risk with no reward. The Rubio campaign is privately telling reporters that they expect to win Minnesota, Oklahoma and Virginia. That's bold.










https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xphIj6xgAwc

[GS4Pirate]

I can't see what benefit Rubio would get from making that statement today. If he's wrong, then it looks bad. If he's right, then he took an unnecessary risk with no reward. The Rubio campaign is privately telling reporters that they expect to win Minnesota, Oklahoma and Virginia. That's bold.










https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xphIj6xgAwc

Early numbers are making Rubio look like a tool. Texas is going to be the big fucking deal tonight, I'm praying Trump wins it just so I can watch this Cruz supporter I follow flip the hell out.

[ClydeR]

Both Clinton and Trump tailored their speeches for the general election. They know they've won their primaries.

[ClydeR]

Christie looks tired at the Trump rally. I'm worried about him.

[ClydeR]

Christie looks tired at the Trump rally. I'm worried about him.

https://vine.co/v/igHFKFWVDnO

[ClydeR]

If you search in Google for "presidential primaries (https://www.google.com/search?q=presidential+primaries)" the first result is Google's interactive summary of delegates awarded so far. It has a pull down menu for state results and voting dates for the remaining states. If you pull down the tab for Texas, you'll see that Rubio got zero delegates from Texas because he fell below the 20% requirement. It's a handy tool.

I also like this chart (https://www.washingtonpost.com/2016-election-results/super-tuesday/) from the Washington Post that focuses just on the results for Super Tuesday.

[Fallen]

Trump: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia
Cruz: Alaska, Oklahoma, and Texas
Rubio: Minnesota

Clinton: Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia
Sanders: Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Vermont

[GS4Pirate]

Both Clinton and Trump tailored their speeches for the general election. They know they've won their primaries.

Between Clinton and Trumps speeches, I have to give Trump the win. He one upped Clinton with the "Making the country whole again".

On a side note, just saw the numbers for voter turnout between 2008 and 2016. (I'm unable to find something to reference yet). These are not good numbers for the democrats, something like -%30 voter turn out, one of the states had a +%70 voter turn out for the Republicans. It's getting ugly out there for the democrats.

[Gelston]

Haha, this person replies to Clyde like he isn't a completely made liberal troll bot.

[GS4Pirate]

Haha, this person replies to Clyde like he isn't a completely made liberal troll bot.

Oh, I know. It's still entertaining though.

[Archigeek]

Between Clinton and Trumps speeches, I have to give Trump the win. He one upped Clinton with the "Making the country whole again".

On a side note, just saw the numbers for voter turnout between 2008 and 2016. (I'm unable to find something to reference yet). These are not good numbers for the democrats, something like -%30 voter turn out, one of the states had a +%70 voter turn out for the Republicans. It's getting ugly out there for the democrats.

Correlation does not equal causation. Republicans are in a shit-fest primary, and they are slugging it out. It's getting huuuuge, publicity, and naturally piques interest, and may or may not result in more Republicans going to the polls in the general election. However, if Trump gets the nomination, a lot of Republicans aren't going to vote for him. Then what? There were other factors in 2008 that pushed record turnouts. You'd be better off comparing averages, instead of comparing numbers with what was a record year. Or, compare republican turnout directly with democrat turnout.

To me, it's a fascinating election cycle, even though I think there's a lot of crazy to go around. The one thing that I think is clearly demonstrated is that the general public is very tired of business as usual in Washington, and this goes for both sides of the aisle. Not much else is particularly clear.

[GS4Pirate]

"Or, compare republican turnout directly with democrat turnout"

That's what this was. Across the board, Democrat voter turn out was in the shitter, in the same states Republican voter turn out was I believe +15% or better. I'll spend some time later looking for a graphic to show up on the web,

I do agree, people are pissed. That's good though, for to many years people just didn't get involved and that's most likely the reason we have so much corruption. Hmmm, and here I am most likely not voting for the first time ever.

Really you can't blame a good man or woman for not wanting to run for office, we all have some bullshit in our past that would get dragged out and twisted into some major thing. Gotcha politics blows.

[Tgo01]

However, if Trump gets the nomination, a lot of Republicans aren't going to vote for him.

The Republican naysayers are going to change their tune when Trump and Clinton win their respective nominations. Right now most of those Republicans just don't want to appear racist, or they want to make the ideal candidate sound better, or blah blah blah.

I'm not too thrilled at the prospect of a Trump presidency either but I'd take that any day over Hillary in the White House.

[Gelston]

The Republican naysayers are going to change their tune when Trump and Clinton win their respective nominations. Right now most of those Republicans just don't want to appear racist, or they want to make the ideal candidate sound better, or blah blah blah.

I'm not too thrilled at the prospect of a Trump presidency either but I'd take that any day over Hillary in the White House.

Trump isn't electable. A victory for Trump is a victory for Clinton. All those people that don't go Democrat or Republican for the sake of going Democrat or Republican are heavily turned off by Trump. Clinton is no saint, but I think they'll see her as the lesser of two evils. Rubio could beat Clinton. Trump can't.

[Tgo01]

Trump isn't electable. A victory for Trump is a victory for Clinton. All those people that don't go Democrat or Republican for the sake of going Democrat or Republican are heavily turned off by Trump. Clinton is no saint, but I think they'll see her as the lesser of two evils. Rubio could beat Clinton. Trump can't.

That's what I would have thought too a few months ago but the longer this thing drags on the more people seem to be joining team Trump and less people seem to be jumping on the Hillary bandwagon.

I think this primary really turned off a lot of young voters who are witnessing for the first time just what a piece of shit Hillary is, with her or her supporter's bullshit antics in Nevada and Massachusetts. These young people just don't seem excited at all to go out and support Hillary like they did for Obama.

As of right now if it is Trump vs Clinton I predict either a Trump victory or a very narrow win for Hillary, popular vote wise not electoral vote wise.

[Gelston]

That's what I would have thought too a few months ago but the longer this thing drags on the more people seem to be joining team Trump and less people seem to be jumping on the Hillary bandwagon.

I think this primary really turned off a lot of young voters who are witnessing for the first time just what a piece of shit Hillary is, with her or her supporter's bullshit antics in Nevada and Massachusetts. These young people just don't seem excited at all to go out and support Hillary like they did for Obama.

As of right now if it is Trump vs Clinton I predict either a Trump victory or a very narrow win for Hillary, popular vote wise not electoral vote wise.


Haha, it would be a landslide victory for Hilary over Trump. I guarantee it. Trump is a win for Democrats.

[Tgo01]

Haha, it would be a landslide victory for Hilary over Trump. I guarantee it. Trump is a win for Democrats.

I'll bet you 10 quadrillion dollars!!!!!

[Gelston]

I'll bet you 10 quadrillion dollars!!!!!

Accepted.

[GS4Pirate]

Trump isn't electable. A victory for Trump is a victory for Clinton. All those people that don't go Democrat or Republican for the sake of going Democrat or Republican are heavily turned off by Trump. Clinton is no saint, but I think they'll see her as the lesser of two evils. Rubio could beat Clinton. Trump can't.

Trump proved last night he can get a wide spectrum of supporters. He won the Texas county with the highest Latino population. Won the southern states, won in the northeast. The best guy in the predicting business even has Trump winning and trouncing Hillary. Look at the money spent, Trump 1.5 million and won last night, Cruz 6.5 million and only managed to carry his home state, a neighboring state and Alaska. They are saying Rubio alone will be spending 25 million in Florida and he's 20 points down. Most likely Trump would deliver New York. Hillary Clinton is not going to be president, shit she should have swept it all last night and a Socialist still managed to take states from her. When we get to the general, Republicans will back Trump because like TGO said, anything is better than Hillary.

I'm already in on a bet for a premium sub. More than happy to take more bets, though you have to take Clinton.

[Gelston]

Trump proved last night he can get a wide spectrum of supporters. He won the Texas county with the highest Latino population. Won the southern states, won in the northeast. The best guy in the predicting business even has Trump winning and trouncing Hillary. Look at the money spent, Trump 1.5 million and won last night, Cruz 6.5 million and only managed to carry his home state, a neighboring state and Alaska. They are saying Rubio alone will be spending 25 million in Florida and he's 20 points down. Most likely Trump would deliver New York. Hillary Clinton is not going to be president, shit she should have swept it all last night and a Socialist still managed to take states from her. When we get to the general, Republicans will back Trump because like TGO said, anything is better than Hillary.

He won REPUBLICAN voters against other REPUBLICANS.

And hell no, Trump wouldn't take New York. People need to stop believing this lie that Trump can win. He can't. We are doomed to Clinton if he takes the nomination.

[Gelston]

Looks like Carson is dropping out...

James,

As one of my most dedicated supporters, I wanted you to hear this directly from me.

I have decided not to attend the Fox News GOP Presidential Debate tomorrow night in Detroit.

Even though I will not be in my hometown of Detroit on Thursday, I remain deeply committed to my home nation, America.

I do not see a political path forward in light of last evening’s Super Tuesday primary results.

However, this grassroots movement on behalf of “We the People” will continue.

Along with millions of patriots who have supported my campaign for President, I remain committed to saving America for future generations. We must not depart from our goals to restore what God and our Founders intended for this exceptional nation.

I appreciate the support, financial and otherwise, from all corners of America.

Gratefully, my campaign decisions are not constrained by finances; rather by what is in the best interest of the American people.

I will discuss more about the future of this movement during my speech on Friday at CPAC in Washington, D.C.

Thank you for everything.

Sincerely,

Ben Carson

[Tgo01]

I've read conflicting reports about Carson's statements. Some say he is dropping out but other sources say while he's basically admitting defeat he isn't suspending his campaign. The guy should have dropped out a while ago, along with Kasich.

[GS4Pirate]

He won REPUBLICAN voters against other REPUBLICANS.

And hell no, Trump wouldn't take New York. People need to stop believing this lie that Trump can win. He can't. We are doomed to Clinton if he takes the nomination.

Yes and democrat voter counts are down "uuuuuge"

[Gelston]

Yes and democrat voter counts are down "uuuuuge"

Again, it isn't about who Democrats or Republicans vote for. They are going to vote for Hilary or Trump regardless (Or whoever from their party gets nominated.) It is the people that don't particularly have a party that you need to get to win the elections. Trump has alienated that base from the start. Clinton isn't much better, but she will take those votes.

[Kembal]

Ok, first, results after 2/27:

ClydeR: 6-1
Drauz: 5-3
Jarvan: 3-3
Fallen: 6-0
Kembal: 5-1
elcidcannon: 2-2
Wross: 4-0
Parkbandit: 3-0
Archigeek: 1-2
Ardwen: 2-0
SHAFT: 1-1
everan: 0-2
Alanteax: 0-2

[Kembal]

Super Tuesday Results:

ClydeR: 18-4
Kembal: 14-8
Candor: 18-4
Archigeek: 17-5
drauz: 16-6
Tgo01: 14-8
Parkbandit: 13-9
Fallen: 15-7

Combined results:

ClydeR: 24-5
Drauz: 21-8
Fallen: 21-7
Kembal: 19-9
Parkbandit: 16-9
Archigeek: 18-7
Candor: 18-4
Tgo01: 14-8
Jarvan: 3-3
elcidcannon: 2-2
Wross: 4-0
Ardwen: 2-0
SHAFT: 1-1
everan: 0-2
Alanteax: 0-2

Double-check and let me know if I got anything wrong.

[Gelston]

Why is ClydeR better than all of you?

[Warriorbird]

Why is ClydeR better than all of you?

He, curiously like Latrin, also has a crush on Nate Silver.

[ClydeR]

I'm so far ahead that the rest of you should drop out and unite behind me. With me in the lead, we can make this forum great again.

[Latrinsorm]

Yes and democrat voter counts are down "uuuuuge"Democrats are not motivated to vote for Hilary, but they will be very highly motivate to vote against Trump... which along with alienating moderate Republicans is the whole point of his campaign.
I'm so far ahead that the rest of you should drop out and unite behind me. With me in the lead, we can make this forum great again.I thought this was pretty funny.

[Gelston]

Democrats are not motivated to vote for Hilary, but they will be very highly motivate to vote against Trump... which along with alienating moderate Republicans is the whole point of his campaign.I thought this was pretty funny.

You shouldn't laugh at your own jokes.

[GS4Pirate]

Democrats are not motivated to vote for Hilary, but they will be very highly motivate to vote against Trump... which along with alienating moderate Republicans is the whole point of his campaign.I thought this was pretty funny.

I think I will stick with the guy who has never been wrong.

[Latrinsorm]

I think I will stick with the guy who has never been wrong.Ah, but who told you he was never wrong? The newsies... and every newsie wants more papes.

[Tgo01]

I think I will stick with the guy who has never been wrong.

In Latrin's defense, in Latrin's mind he has never been wrong.

[drauz]

I think I will stick with the guy who has never been wrong.

Can't tell if serious...or joking...

[Latrinsorm]

In Latrin's defense, in Latrin's mind he has never been wrong.I have detailed files on the times I have been wrong, and refer to them often.

They take up under 4 kilobytes. http://i.imgur.com/oF9ihLZ.png?1

As a .txt file T_T

[GS4Pirate]

Can't tell if serious...or joking...

LOL, no I was not talking about Latrin, I'm talking about the guy I posted about that has Trump winning it all. His formula has never been wrong.

[Jeril]

LOL, no I was not talking about Latrin, I'm talking about the guy I posted about that has Trump winning it all. His formula has never been wrong.

Really? Because in the article it said it was wrong when Kennedy won over Nixon. Giving it like a 96. some odd % accuracy.